2000 Senate · TN
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 34% · Republican 53%
R+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.21% · Republican 65.10%
R+32.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 34 − 53 = -19.00
- Actual margin = 32.207 − 65.096 = -32.889
- Signed miss = -19.00 − (-32.889) = 13.889
- Absolute miss = |13.889| = 13.889
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6185, race ID 1708 (538 database).