Skip to content

2000 Senate · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 61%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 61 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-24.061) = -7.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.939| = 7.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6183, race ID 1705 (538 database).