Skip to content

2000 President · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 770 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 41%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.13% · Republican 40.29%

D+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.126 − 40.291 = 15.835
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (15.835) = -7.834
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.834| = 7.834

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6175, race ID 837 (538 database).