2000 President · CA
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 924 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 41%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.45% · Republican 41.65%
D+11.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 53.450 − 41.651 = 11.799
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (11.799) = -6.798
- Absolute miss = |-6.798| = 6.798
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6173, race ID 810 (538 database).