Skip to content

2000 President · NM

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.91% · Republican 47.85%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.909 − 47.847 = 0.062
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.062) = -0.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.061| = 0.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6171, race ID 838 (538 database).