2000 Senate · NM
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 425 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 30%
D+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.70% · Republican 38.25%
D+23.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 30 = 30.00
- Actual margin = 61.701 − 38.254 = 23.447
- Signed miss = 30.00 − (23.447) = 6.553
- Absolute miss = |6.553| = 6.553
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6171, race ID 1702 (538 database).