2000 President · MI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 40%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%
D+5.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.134) = 3.866
- Absolute miss = |3.866| = 3.866
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6169, race ID 828 (538 database).