2000 President · OH
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 46%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.44% · Republican 49.99%
R+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 46 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 46.440 − 49.986 = -3.546
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-3.546) = -2.454
- Absolute miss = |-2.454| = 2.454
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6167, race ID 841 (538 database).