2000 President · CA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 40%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.45% · Republican 41.65%
D+11.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 53.450 − 41.651 = 11.799
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (11.799) = -3.798
- Absolute miss = |-3.798| = 3.798
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6166, race ID 810 (538 database).