2000 Governor · NH
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 37%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.76%
D+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 37 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 48.736 − 43.759 = 4.977
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.977) = 1.023
- Absolute miss = |1.023| = 1.023
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6164, race ID 1425 (538 database).