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2000 President · AL

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 55%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.78% · Republican 28.24%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.783 − 28.242 = -7.459
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-7.459) = -9.541
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.541| = 9.541

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6150, race ID 807 (538 database).