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2000 President · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 42%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.170) = 3.830
  4. Absolute miss = |3.830| = 3.830

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6135, race ID 844 (538 database).