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2000 President · WI

Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 44%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 44 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.220) = -5.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.220| = 5.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6127, race ID 854 (538 database).