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2014 Governor · FL

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,559 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.3% · Republican 42.8%

R+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.3 − 42.8 = -1.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = -1.50 − (-1.077) = -0.422
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.422| = 0.422

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 58857, race ID 1253 (538 database).