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2014 Governor · FL

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 4,893 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39.4% · Republican 41.9%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.4 − 41.9 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-1.077) = -1.422
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.422| = 1.422

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 58856, race ID 1253 (538 database).