2003 Governor · CA
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2003-09-28 (9 days before the election) · 894 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 36%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.47% · Republican 48.58%
R+17.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 36 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 31.473 − 48.583 = -17.110
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-17.110) = 7.110
- Absolute miss = |7.110| = 7.110
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 5862, race ID 1380 (538 database).