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2018 Senate · MS

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-25 (2 days before the election) · 1,211 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.37% · Republican 53.63%

R+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.367 − 53.633 = -7.266
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.266) = 2.267
  4. Absolute miss = |2.267| = 2.267

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56923, race ID 6209 (538 database).