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2018 Senate · IN

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.8% · Republican 42.9%

R+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 44.84% · Republican 50.73%

R+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.8 − 42.9 = -1.10
  2. Actual margin = 44.842 − 50.732 = -5.890
  3. Signed miss = -1.10 − (-5.890) = 4.790
  4. Absolute miss = |4.790| = 4.790

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56832, race ID 102 (538 database).