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2018 Governor · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.5% · Republican 44.3%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.5 − 44.3 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (4.084) = -3.884
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.884| = 3.884

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56831, race ID 151 (538 database).