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2018 Governor · FL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 46.3%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 46.3 = 2.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 2.40 − (-0.395) = 2.795
  4. Absolute miss = |2.795| = 2.795

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56830, race ID 138 (538 database).