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2018 Senate · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 44%

D+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 44 = 4.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = 4.60 − (2.345) = 2.256
  4. Absolute miss = |2.256| = 2.256

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56829, race ID 96 (538 database).