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2018 House · OH-4

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 350 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 60%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.74% · Republican 65.26%

R+30.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 60 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.736 − 65.264 = -30.528
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-30.528) = 6.528
  4. Absolute miss = |6.528| = 6.528

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56818, race ID 468 (538 database).