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2018 Senate · OH

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 923 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.41% · Republican 46.57%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.411 − 46.566 = 6.845
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (6.845) = 3.154
  4. Absolute miss = |3.154| = 3.154

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56818, race ID 117 (538 database).