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2018 Senate · MI

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 880 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.506) = -4.506
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.506| = 4.506

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56811, race ID 106 (538 database).