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2018 Senate · MS

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,003 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 48%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.48% · Republican 58.49%

R+19.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 48 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.475 − 58.493 = -19.018
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-19.018) = 11.018
  4. Absolute miss = |11.018| = 11.018

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56806, race ID 108 (538 database).