2018 Senate · WI
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 39%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.36% · Republican 44.53%
D+10.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 55.357 − 44.532 = 10.825
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (10.825) = 0.175
- Absolute miss = |0.175| = 0.175
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56805, race ID 127 (538 database).