2018 Senate · OH
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.41% · Republican 46.57%
D+6.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 53.411 − 46.566 = 6.845
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (6.845) = 7.154
- Absolute miss = |7.154| = 7.154
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56804, race ID 117 (538 database).