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2018 Senate · NM

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 33%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.09% · Republican 30.53%

D+23.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 33 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.088 − 30.532 = 23.556
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (23.556) = -9.556
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.556| = 9.556

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56803, race ID 114 (538 database).