2018 Governor · FL
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.395) = 1.395
- Absolute miss = |1.395| = 1.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56802, race ID 138 (538 database).