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2018 Governor · MN

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 953 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.84% · Republican 42.43%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.844 − 42.427 = 11.417
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (11.417) = 0.583
  4. Absolute miss = |0.583| = 0.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56797, race ID 149 (538 database).