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2018 Senate · MN

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 953 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.31% · Republican 36.21%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.310 − 36.214 = 24.096
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (24.096) = -9.096
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.096| = 9.096

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56797, race ID 107 (538 database).