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2018 Governor · CA

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,108 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (23.898) = -11.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.897| = 11.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56793, race ID 135 (538 database).