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2018 House · VA-2

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 710 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.05% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.050 − 48.814 = 2.236
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.236) = -2.236
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.236| = 2.236

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56791, race ID 569 (538 database).