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2018 Governor · FL

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 784 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 45.6%

D+5.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 45.6 = 5.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 5.30 − (-0.395) = 5.695
  4. Absolute miss = |5.695| = 5.695

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56780, race ID 138 (538 database).