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2018 Senate · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 758 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 47.8%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 47.8 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (2.345) = -1.644
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.644| = 1.644

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56779, race ID 96 (538 database).