Skip to content

2018 Governor · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 758 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40.2% · Republican 55.3%

R+15.1

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.2 − 55.3 = -15.10
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -15.10 − (-14.160) = -0.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.939| = 0.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56779, race ID 133 (538 database).