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2018 House · NV-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 238 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.3% · Republican 28.3%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.17% · Republican 30.87%

D+35.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.3 − 28.3 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.167 − 30.866 = 35.301
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (35.301) = -5.301
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.301| = 5.301

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56778, race ID 434 (538 database).