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2018 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 701 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 40%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (9.567) = 4.433
  4. Absolute miss = |4.433| = 4.433

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56772, race ID 148 (538 database).