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2018 Senate · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 3,088 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.9% · Republican 46.2%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.9 − 46.2 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (-0.123) = 3.823
  4. Absolute miss = |3.823| = 3.823

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56771, race ID 100 (538 database).