2018 Governor · FL
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,142 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 43%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.395) = 7.395
- Absolute miss = |7.395| = 7.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56770, race ID 138 (538 database).