2018 Governor · FL
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 595 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.395) = 4.395
- Absolute miss = |4.395| = 4.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56769, race ID 138 (538 database).