2018 Senate · FL
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 595 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.123) = 4.123
- Absolute miss = |4.123| = 4.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56769, race ID 100 (538 database).