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2018 House · MT-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 879 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.25% · Republican 50.88%

R+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.248 − 50.882 = -4.634
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-4.634) = -3.366
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.366| = 3.366

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56762, race ID 399 (538 database).