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2018 House · WY-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 858 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 55%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.77% · Republican 63.59%

R+33.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 55 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.766 − 63.586 = -33.820
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-33.820) = 6.819
  4. Absolute miss = |6.819| = 6.819

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56761, race ID 601 (538 database).