Skip to content

2018 Senate · WY

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 858 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 60%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.10% · Republican 66.96%

R+36.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 60 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.099 − 66.960 = -36.861
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-36.861) = 7.861
  4. Absolute miss = |7.861| = 7.861

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56761, race ID 128 (538 database).