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2018 Governor · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 338 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.1% · Republican 47%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 42.23% · Republican 54.33%

R+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.1 − 47 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 42.227 − 54.331 = -12.104
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (-12.104) = 9.205
  4. Absolute miss = |9.205| = 9.205

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56748, race ID 156 (538 database).