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2018 House · OH-7

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36.34% · Republican 54.59%

R+18.3

The certified result

Democrat 41.26% · Republican 58.74%

R+17.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.34 − 54.59 = -18.25
  2. Actual margin = 41.256 − 58.744 = -17.488
  3. Signed miss = -18.25 − (-17.488) = -0.763
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.763| = 0.763

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56746, race ID 471 (538 database).