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2018 Governor · PA

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.77% · Republican 40.70%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.768 − 40.695 = 17.073
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (17.073) = -2.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.073| = 2.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56741, race ID 158 (538 database).