2018 Senate · PA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 39%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.74% · Republican 42.62%
D+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 55.744 − 42.617 = 13.127
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (13.127) = 3.873
- Absolute miss = |3.873| = 3.873
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56741, race ID 118 (538 database).