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2018 Senate · MN

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 33%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.31% · Republican 36.21%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 33 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.310 − 36.214 = 24.096
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (24.096) = -4.096
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.096| = 4.096

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56739, race ID 107 (538 database).